This is a structural change that can be partially offset only by higher participation rates of women and older Australians.
● The Australian economy will continue to grow, but slower than previously thought. Growth will continue to be highly dependent on productivity gains.
The economy is expected to be more than 2 1⁄2 times bigger in 2060-61 than it is today, with real GDP per person growing at an average annual rate of 1.5 per cent compared with 1.6 per cent during the past 40 years.
To generate this growth, it is assumed that productivity will maintain its 30-year average of 1.5 per cent. This, however, will require an improvement in Australia’s recent productivity performance of 1.2 per cent across the most recent cycle.
If we want to maintain our living standards, generate higher wages and create more jobs, Australia must pursue economic reform, much of which is hard and contested. It is a national imperative.
Further investments in skills, infrastructure and digital transformation are required together with reforms that reduce red tape and that lead to more flexible workplaces, increased business investment and a more efficient tax system.
With productivity responsible for more than 80 per cent of Australia’s national income growth during the past 30 years, the task is obvious.
Productivity, as US economist Paul Krugman said, “isn’t everything, but in the long run it’s almost everything”.
● While Australia’s debt is sustainable and low by international standards, the ageing of our population will put pressure on revenue and expenditure.
Deficits are expected to decline from 7.8 per cent of GDP today to 0.7 per cent in 2036-37, before widening to 2.3 per cent in 2060-61.
This is a trajectory similar to those in previous IGRs, reflecting the impact of an ageing population and existing policy settings.
The Howard government’s 2002 and 2007 IGRs forecast deficits at the end of the 40- year period of 7 per cent and 5 per cent respectively; the Rudd government’s 2010 IGR forecast a deficit of 4 per cent in 2050.
Only in 2015 was a surplus forecast of 0.5 per cent at the end of the period, but that was in the absence of Covid, the biggest economic shock since the Depression.
In this year’s IGR, health accounts for the biggest shift in government spending across the next 40 years, going from 4.6 per cent to 6.2 per cent of GDP, with aged care going from 1.2 per cent to 2.1 per cent of GDP and spending on the National Disability Insurance Scheme at 1.4 per cent of GDP, nearly 30 per cent higher than what was forecast in 2015.
Significantly, as expenditure rises, the tax take doesn’t go beyond 23.9 per cent of GDP, the self-imposed cap the Coalition put in place.
Growing the economy, not austerity measures or higher taxes, is Australia’s pathway to budget repair.
Only by growing can we continue to guarantee the essential services Australians rely on.
This year’s IGR underlines the fact the economic impact of Covid is not short-lived, and that boosting productivity will be key to our nation’s future prosperity. We are relatively well placed, but there remains much work to be done.
Josh Frydenberg is the federal Treasurer.